Projected and actual winner
Abigail Spanberger
Democrat
Forecast52.7%
Actual57.6%
Projected and actual runner-up
Winsome Earle-Sears
Republican
Forecast44.8%
Actual42.2%
Forecast margin
Spanberger +7.9
Actual margin
Spanberger +15.4
Margin error
7.5 points