Polycivic

2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Election Forecast

Only Washington, Indiana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina were forecast. Polycivic did not forecast Montana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Utah, Missouri, West Virginia, or Vermont because they were widely considered safe races; therefore, they did not require forecasting.

Forecast Map

Dem.
Win Flip
Rep.
Win Flip

Washington

Polycivic forecastD+7.0
ActualD+11.2

Margin error: 4.2 points

Indiana

Polycivic forecastR+8.9
ActualR+13.3

Margin error: 4.4 points

New Hampshire

Polycivic forecastD+1.1
ActualR+9.3

Margin error: 10.4 points

North Carolina

Polycivic forecastD+8.7
ActualD+14.8

Margin error: 6.1 points

Races forecast4
Winners correct3 of 4
Average margin error6.3 points